Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
