Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
